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Mortgage Market Overview
The UK economic growth is expected to slow over the next few months. At present there is not much evidence of a slowdown from any official statistics. The gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.2% in the 12 months to the third quarter of 2007. The main proof of a slowdown comes via survey data.
This shows that the UK economic growth will slow to a rate of 2.2% next year around half a per cent lower than the trend. In 2009 the UK economics will reach 2.8% based on a rate reduction to 5.25% or less in 2008’s first quarter.
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The Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report shows a reduction in the forecast path of inflation and this has enabled the Monetary Policy Committee the chance to reduce base rate with the possibility of a further 0.25% if the economic growth rate slows in 2008. The base rate is expected to drop by 0.25% in the first quarter and a possible further 0.25% in the second quarter.
The mortgage market has been hit by a decline in the number of transactions and strong level of gross lending. There has been a steady drop in first time buyers mostly due to the rise in base rates. It is expected that the base rate will drop further in the first six months of 2008. A possible slow recovery in the latter half of 2008 is likely to be seen. Gross lending is strong showing a high level of refinance. The buy to let market is strong boosted by the growing demand for rental property from people unable to afford to buy a property.
Next year is likely to show a slowing of house prices inflation. There will still be a growing of demand over supply. Homes to be completed next year should total 220,000 but 250,000 are likely to be needed with the high level of migration and the fact that many people are now living much longer.
Average price inflation is likely to be 4% but fluctuations are expected.
Mortgage News
Around 7% of homeowners do not shop around for the best deals in buildings cover
33% of those moving consider being close to family a key factor
Possessions rose by almost 18% compared to the first six months of the year and nearly 30% higher than the first six months of 2006.
Around 26% of people serve dinner in front of the television leaving dining rooms empty.
One in ten people would like to purchase the house they grew up in.
13% of homeowners took out building insurance with their lender because it was quick and easy.
The Bank of England stated that the £1.4bn increase in consumer credit was above September’s increase and the previous six months.
Sup to 87% of mortgage advisers have had deals affected by the credit crunch due to products being pulled plus delays.
House prices rose by 13% between 2000 and 2007. An average house valued at £85,005 in 2000 was valued at £198,898 in 2007.
7% of homeowners would, if they were remortgaging in February choose a fixed rate for ten years and 6% would chose a fifteen year fix.
For renting for a 25 year period the average cost would be £443,736 whilst buying a house over the same period of time would cost £437,925 this means a saving of l.3%.
Seven out of ten graduates that do not already own a home state unaffordable house prices are the main reason stopping them buying a property.
Over half (53%) of couple’s cohabitating say that a pre-habitation agreement would not enter their minds.
During the first three months of January 2008 flats in Scotland rose in price by 2.1%.
More than 1.3 million people planning to remortgage property would opt for their lender’s standard variable rate.
Just one in four couples cohabitating may consider a legal agreement before moving in together.
Demand for long term fixed rates is increasing and in February was nearly as popular as a two year fixed rate with 10 year rates at 7% and 15 year rates at 6%.